First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Stock Price & Analysis
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) is trading at USD 11.3, down 2.25% today, as of October 23, 2026 at 13:32 UTC (US market open; quotes may be delayed), according to Nexqual market data.
FWRG last closed at USD 11.3; today's session has ranged USD 11.3–11.51 on volume of 19,866 shares. Market capitalization is —, with a 52-week range of USD 9.88–18.77 (NMS). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 13:33 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/FWRG.md
Key facts (FWRG)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 28, 2026): revenue $1.32B, net income $17.8M (1.4% margin), free cash flow -$20.9M (SEC filings).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -37.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -47.6% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.03, revenue estimate $349M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (FWRG)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $601M | $730M | $892M | $1.02B | $1.22B | $1.32B |
| Operating income | $22.2M | $16.9M | $41.3M | $38.9M | $27.5M | $28.2M |
| Net income | -$2.1M | $6.9M | $25.4M | $18.9M | $19.4M | $17.8M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.04 | $0.11 | $0.41 | $0.30 | $0.31 | — |
| Free cash flow | $27.7M | $718K | $12.0M | -$12.2M | -$31.0M | -$20.9M |
| Operating margin | 3.7% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| Net margin | -0.4% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| Revenue growth | +75.6% | +21.5% | +22.1% | +13.9% | +20.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $51.9M | $49.7M | $49.6M | $33.3M | $21.2M | — |
| Total debt | $99.8M | $94.7M | $120M | $189M | $269M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 28, 2026) (FWRG)
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 48.8x, Dec 2024 61.3x, Dec 2023 48.5x.
Analysts (FWRG)
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $20 → $19 |
| 2026-10-16 | Raymond James | Target lowered | Strong Buy | $20 → $18 |
| 2026-10-15 | Stephens & Co. | Target lowered | Overweight | $21 → $18 |
| 2026-10-02 | DA Davidson | Target lowered | Buy | $17 → $15 |
| 2026-08-07 | Guggenheim | Target lowered | Buy | $21 → $20 |
| 2026-08-05 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $21 → $20 |
| 2026-07-01 | Freedom Capital Markets | Initiated | Buy | $17 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (FWRG)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -37.2% | -47.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -37.2% | -12.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 54.5% | 47.8% |
| Max drawdown | -45.5% (Nov 2025→Sep 2026) | -60.0% (Feb 2024→Sep 2026) |
FWRG revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 28, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Restaurant sales | $351.5M | 99.1% | +15.2% |
| — In-restaurant dining sales (part of Restaurant sales) | $284.3M | 80.2% | +14.9% |
| — Third-party delivery sales (part of Restaurant sales) | $41.3M | 11.7% | +20.0% |
| — Take-out sales (part of Restaurant sales) | $25.8M | 7.3% | +11.8% |
| Franchise revenues | $3.2M | 0.9% | +9.9% |
| — Royalty and system fund contributions (part of Franchise revenues) | $3.1M | 0.9% | +26.8% |
| — Initial fees (part of Franchise revenues) | $82,000 | 0.0% | +49.1% |
| Total revenue | $354.7M | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
FWRG suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Apple (AAPL) | “Through a QR code on our receipts, customers can seamlessly pay using Apple Pay, Google Pay or a credit or debit card, reducing bottlenecks at host stands, particularly during peak weekend hours.” |
| Customer | Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL) | “Through a QR code on our receipts, customers can seamlessly pay using Apple Pay, Google Pay or a credit or debit card, reducing bottlenecks at host stands, particularly during peak weekend hours.” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026.
FWRG company outlook (results filed Aug 4, 2026)
- “(2) We have not reconciled guidance for Adjusted EBITDA to the corresponding GAAP financial measure because we do not provide guidance for the various reconciling items.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
FWRG analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $0.03 | $0.07 | -54.3% | $349.4M | 9 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.07 | $0.06 | +4.3% | $353.5M | 9 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $0.12 | $0.17 | -30.8% | $1.39B | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $0.24 | $0.27 | -11.0% | $1.55B | 9 |
FWRG options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±18.8% (±$2.17) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 3, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±8.7% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 75.8% | ±18.8% |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 119 | 61.2% | ±29.4% |
| May 21, 2027 | 210 | 55.1% | ±34.4% |
30-day implied volatility 69.1% vs 48.7% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.14. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 13:33 UTC)
| Price | USD 11.3 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 2.25% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 11.3 |
| Open | USD 11.3 |
| Day Range | USD 11.3 – 11.51 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 9.88 – 18.77 |
| Volume | 19,866 shares |
| Market Cap | — |
| Exchange | NMS |
Technical Analysis (FWRG)
Nexqual's technical model rates FWRG "NEUTRAL" based on 2 bullish and 3 bearish signals across 128 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 13:33 UTC.
| Overall Signal | NEUTRAL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 46.44 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 11.44) |
| MACD | 0.16 (positive) |
Earnings (FWRG)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-03 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.03 |
| Revenue Estimate | $349.36M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 0.05 vs est 0.05 ▼ miss |
| 2026-03-31 | USD -0.02 vs est -0.03 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.26 vs est 0.07 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.06 vs est 0.07 ▼ miss |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 13:33 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (FWRG)
| Total Revenue | $1.32B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +15.20% |
| Gross Margin | +20.63% |
| Operating Margin | +2.48% |
| Profit Margin | +1.35% |
| ROE | +2.88% |
| Debt / Equity | 1.69 |
| Current Ratio | 0.27 |
| Total Cash | $20.48M |
| Total Debt | $1.07B |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 13:33 UTC.
Ownership (FWRG)
| Insider Ownership | +1.85% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +109.10% |
| Shares Outstanding | 61.71M |
| Float | 60.65M |
| Short % of Float | +12.32% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 13:33 UTC.
From First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-24)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- We have built our brand on our commitment to operational excellence, our culinary mission centered around a fresh, continuously evolving menu, and our "You First" culture.
- Our focus on one daytime shift enables us to optimize restaurant operations while generating an average unit volume of $2.3 million per restaurant in 2025 in only 7.5 hours per day.
- We believe our approach and operating model have enabled us to retain and attract the best and brightest employees in the industry and are key factors in our ability to meet our growing demand across the country.
- We employ a narrow span of supervisory control, which we believe contributes to the consistency of our restaurants' performance across our system.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- We could be party to litigation that could distract management, increase our expenses or subject us to material monetary damages or other remedies.
- We are exposed to risks associated with leasing property subject to long-term and non-cancelable leases and may be unable to renew leases at the end of their terms.
- Changes in tax laws, and unanticipated tax liabilities and realization of deferred tax assets could adversely affect our results of operations.
- Risks Related to Accounting and Financial Reporting Matters
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTLO | Portillo's Inc. | USD 4.4 | ▼ 2.55% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | USD 11.42 | ▼ 1% |
| CNNE | Cannae Holdings, Inc. | USD 16.36 | ▼ 0.42% |
| XPOF | Xponential Fitness, Inc. | USD 4.21 | ▲ 0.12% |
| KRUS | Kura Sushi USA, Inc. | USD 33.6 | ▼ 2.35% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 13:33 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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