Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Stock Price & Analysis
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) closed at USD 401.37 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 2.90% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 401.37; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 383.76–416 on volume of 1,611,624 shares. Market capitalization is —, with a 52-week range of USD 181–437.41 (NMS). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:22 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/NTRA.md
Key facts (NTRA)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $2.71B, net income -$192M (-7.1% margin), free cash flow $84.2M (SEC filings).
- 4 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold NTRA (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 3 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +105.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +249.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD -0.28, revenue estimate $708M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (NTRA)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $625M | $820M | $1.08B | $1.70B | $2.31B | $2.71B |
| Operating income | -$468M | -$541M | -$446M | -$222M | -$310M | -$290M |
| Net income | -$472M | -$548M | -$435M | -$190M | -$208M | -$192M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$5.21 | -$5.57 | -$3.78 | -$1.53 | -$1.52 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$376M | -$479M | -$286M | $69.2M | $109M | $84.2M |
| Operating margin | -74.8% | -66.0% | -41.2% | -13.1% | -13.4% | -10.7% |
| Net margin | -75.4% | -66.8% | -40.2% | -11.2% | -9.0% | -7.1% |
| Revenue growth | +60.0% | +31.1% | +32.0% | +56.7% | +35.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $914M | $898M | $879M | $968M | — | — |
| Total debt | $330M | $362M | $363M | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (NTRA)
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (NTRA)
4 of 80 tracked investors hold NTRA. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Ainslie | Maverick Capital | 3.32% | $368M | Added +15.8% |
| Torray Funds | 0.36% | $2.6M | Added +1.7% | |
| Viking Global | Viking Global Investors | 0.30% | $106M | New position |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | <0.01% | $442K | Added +28.2% |
Analysts (NTRA)
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Canaccord Genuity | Target raised | Buy | $375 → $500 |
| 2026-10-14 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $360 → $460 |
| 2026-10-13 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $355 → $435 |
| 2026-10-13 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $340 → $480 |
| 2026-10-07 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $340 → $475 |
| 2026-10-06 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $365 → $480 |
| 2026-10-01 | Guggenheim | Target raised | Buy | $360 → $475 |
| 2026-09-25 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $350 → $460 |
| 2026-09-09 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $290 → $435 |
| 2026-09-08 | Rothschild & Co | Initiated | Buy | $385 |
| 2026-08-13 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $315 → $365 |
| 2026-08-12 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $249 → $363.5 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (NTRA)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +105.8% | +249.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +106.3% | +28.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 47.7% | 52.2% |
| Max drawdown | -28.2% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -71.1% (Nov 2021→Jun 2022) |
NTRA revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product revenues | $747.9M | 99.4% | +37.4% |
| Licensing and other revenues | $4.8M | 0.6% | +121.9% |
| Total revenue | $752.8M | 100% | — |
NTRA revenue by region (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $739.5M | 98.2% | +37.5% |
| Europe, Middle East, India, Africa | $9.0M | 1.2% | +66.7% |
| Americas, excluding U.S. | $2.2M | 0.3% | +41.3% |
| Asia Pacific and Other | $2.0M | 0.3% | +12.4% |
| Total revenue | $752.8M | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
NTRA suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Laboratory | “Laboratory tests, as with most other health care services, are classified for reimbursement purposes under a coding system known as Current Procedure Terminology, or CPT, which we and our customers must use to bill and receive reimbursement for our diagnostic tests.” |
| Partner | BGI Genomics | “For example, we have entered into an agreement with BGI Genomics pursuant to which, among others, BGI Genomics commercializes our MRD test in China on its sequencing platform.” |
| Partner | DNAnexus | “We host the majority of these algorithms on a cloud‑based software platform pursuant to an agreement with DNAnexus, Inc., or DNAnexus, and both we and our Constellation licensees access our algorithms through the DNAnexus platform.” |
| Related party | MyOme | “None of the related party investments in MyOme by our executives and directors noted above were at the behest of the Company nor funded by the Company.” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026.
Companies that name NTRA in their SEC reports
| Relationship to NTRA | Company | Filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Allogene Therapeutics, Inc. (ALLO) | 10-K Mar 12, 2026 | “Additionally, in February 2025, we entered into an Amended and Restated Strategic Collaboration Agreement with Foresight Diagnostics (which was acquired by Natera in December 2025 and continues to operate as a standalone subsidiary), which expands our collaboration to enable the development of Foresight Diagnostics' MRD assay in the EU, UK, Canada and Australia in support of our clinical development of cema-cel.” |
| supplier | Personalis, Inc. (PSNL) | 10-K Feb 26, 2026 | “We previously derived a significant portion of our revenue from Natera under our partnership to provide advanced tumor analysis for use in Natera's MRD testing.” |
| partner | EXELIXIS, INC. (EXEL) | 10-K Feb 10, 2026 | “Beyond STELLAR-001, STELLAR-002, STELLAR-303, STELLAR-304 and STELLAR-311, we intend to initiate additional early-stage and pivotal trials evaluating zanzalintinib across a broad array of potential future indications, including: STELLAR-201, a planned, single-arm phase 2 study that will evaluate zanzalintinib in patients with Grade I/II/III meningioma with relapse or progression following surgery and radiation, or…” |
NTRA customer concentration
In the period ended Jun 30, 2026, a single direct customer accounted for 16.5% of revenue, per the company's 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026. The company does not name it.
NTRA company outlook (results filed Aug 6, 2026)
- “Natera anticipates 2026 total revenue of $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion; 2026 gross margin 1 to be approximately 64% to 66%; selling, general and administrative costs to be approximately $1.125 billion to $1.225 billion; research and development costs to be $800 million to $900 million; and cash flow to be positive.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
NTRA analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $-0.28 | $-0.38 | -25.9% | $707.6M | 14 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $-0.12 | $-0.20 | -37.7% | $749.0M | 13 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $-1.46 | $-1.71 | -14.4% | $2.91B | 17 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $-0.18 | $-0.20 | -13.1% | $3.52B | 16 |
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:22 UTC)
| Price | USD 401.37 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 2.90% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 401.37 |
| Open | USD 401.37 |
| Day Range | USD 383.76 – 416 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 181 – 437.41 |
| Volume | 1,611,624 shares |
| Market Cap | — |
| Exchange | NMS |
Technical Analysis (NTRA)
Nexqual's technical model rates NTRA "BUY" based on 4 bullish and 1 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:22 UTC.
| Overall Signal | BUY |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 57.81 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 365.1) |
| MACD | 10.59 (positive) |
Earnings (NTRA)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-05 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD -0.28 |
| Revenue Estimate | $707.62M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD -0.47 vs est -0.53 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD -0.6 vs est -0.55 ▼ miss |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.36 vs est -0.53 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD -0.64 vs est -0.35 ▼ miss |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:22 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (NTRA)
| Total Revenue | $2.71B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +37.70% |
| Gross Margin | +65.23% |
| Operating Margin | -10.29% |
| Profit Margin | -7.11% |
| ROE | -12.54% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.13 |
| Current Ratio | 3 |
| Total Cash | $1.09B |
| Total Debt | $238.49M |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:22 UTC.
Ownership (NTRA)
| Insider Ownership | +2.73% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +96.69% |
| Shares Outstanding | 144.14M |
| Float | 140.13M |
| Short % of Float | +4.54% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:22 UTC.
From Natera, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-27)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- Our approach combines proprietary molecular biology and computational techniques to measure genomic variations in tiny amounts of DNA, as small as a single cell.
- We focus on applying our technology to three main areas of healthcare – oncology, women's health, and organ health.
- To make sense of the resulting deep and rich set of biological data and deliver a test result, we have developed computationally intensive algorithms that combine the data generated by mmPCR with our internal databases and the vast and growing sources of publicly available genomic information to build highly detailed models of the genomic regions of interest.
- Our technologies allow us to achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio when detecting fragments of DNA at frequencies as low as a single copy, which allows us to deliver tests with a high degree of specificity and sensitivity.
Partnerships
- We are continuing to generate data, building evidence of the clinical validity and utility of the test across multiple cancer types and in collaboration with leading universities and cancer centers, NIH's National Cancer Institute, or NCI, non-profit cancer research groups, and pharmaceutical companies.
- Our original clinical validation study for Prospera Kidney, conducted in collaboration with the University of California, San Francisco, a recognized leader in transplantation care, and published in the Journal of Clinical Medicine, demonstrated 89% sensitivity in detecting active rejection, with an AUC of 0.87 and NPV of 95%, based on a cutoff of 1% dd-cfDNA.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- We may be subject to increased compliance risks as a result of our rapid growth, including our dependence on our sales, marketing and billing efforts.
- We may not be able to obtain approval from the FDA for Signatera PMAs currently under review or for applications that we may submit to FDA in the future.
- Failure to obtain necessary regulatory approvals may adversely affect our ability to expand our operations internationally.
- Regulatory approval can be a lengthy, expensive and uncertain process.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | Agilent Technologies, Inc. | USD 173.89 | ▼ 2.17% |
| IQV | IQVIA Holdings, Inc. | USD 278.32 | ▲ 0.61% |
| WAT | Waters Corporation | USD 455.59 | ▼ 0.41% |
| IDXX | IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. | USD 566.76 | ▲ 2.4% |
| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | USD 269.4 | ▼ 4.76% |
| MTD | Mettler-Toledo International, I | USD 1,684.64 | ▲ 0.4% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:22 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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