Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) Stock Price & Analysis
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) closed at USD 4.72 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 0.21% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 4.73; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 4.7–4.78 on volume of 159,180 shares. Market capitalization is $212.64M, with a 52-week range of USD 3.88–10.38 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/OSG.md
Key facts (OSG)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $321M, net income -$159M (-49.6% margin) (SEC filings).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold OSG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale) (3 analysts), mean target USD 11.67 (range 8–15).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -43.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -72.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-09, EPS estimate USD -0.05, revenue estimate $92.4M.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (OSG)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $282M | $53.6M | $125M | $236M | $251M | $321M |
| Net income | -$17.0M | $522M | $5.0M | -$556M | -$259M | -$159M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.61 | $11.48 | $0.18 | -$11.96 | -$5.93 | — |
| Net margin | -6.0% | 973.9% | 4.0% | -235.8% | -103.1% | -49.6% |
| Revenue growth | +80.8% | -81.0% | +132.6% | +89.1% | +6.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $431M | $513M | $208M | $157M | $215M | — |
| Total debt | $2.23B | $639M | $508M | $150M | $118M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (OSG)
P/S 0.7x · EV/Sales 0.6x · P/B 0.3x · Earnings yield -74.78% · Net cash $6.2M · EV $206M
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2023 151.9x.
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (OSG)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold OSG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Avenue Management | 1.34% | $8.4M | Added +0.1% |
Analysts (OSG)
Consensus Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale), 3 analysts; mean target USD 11.67 (low 8, high 15).
Total return (dividends reinvested) (OSG)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -43.9% | -72.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -44.0% | -22.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 63.3% | 51.6% |
| Max drawdown | -60.9% (Nov 2025→Apr 2026) | -78.3% (May 2024→Apr 2026) |
OSG revenue by business segment (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance Distribution | $58.4M | 70.4% | +76.8% |
| Specialty Property And Casualty Insurance | $26.4M | 31.8% | +23.4% |
| Corporate | $232,000 | 0.3% | -55.9% |
| Total revenue | $83.0M | 100% | — |
OSG revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accident & Health | $13.9M | 16.7% | +171.2% |
| — Other Professional (part of Accident & Health) | $4.3M | 5.2% | +18.5% |
| — Professional D&O (part of Accident & Health) | $3.5M | 4.2% | +149.5% |
| — Specialty Automobile (part of Accident & Health) | $3.1M | 3.7% | +18.6% |
| — Environmental (part of Accident & Health) | $1.8M | 2.2% | +48.5% |
| — Reinsurance (part of Accident & Health) | $1.1M | 1.3% | -71.7% |
| Property | $9.5M | 11.4% | +16.6% |
| Surety | $5.4M | 6.5% | -690.1% |
| Niche Specialty Risks | $3.9M | 4.7% | +10.4% |
| Miscellaneous Specialty | $2.0M | 2.4% | +1931.0% |
| Marine and Energy | $1.2M | 1.4% | -27.9% |
| Total revenue | $83.0M | 100% | — |
OSG revenue by region (fiscal year ended Dec 31, 2025)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $172.3M | 68.6% | -18.9% |
| United Kingdom | $78.9M | 31.4% | +239.9% |
| Total revenue | $251.2M | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
OSG company outlook (results filed Aug 6, 2026)
- “(3) greater than expected underwriting losses in the Company's specialty property and casualty insurance business resulting in inadequacy of loss and loss expense reserves and the possibility that changes in reserves may result in further volatility of earnings or financial results;”
- “(8) loss of key relationships for the production of business in our specialty property and casualty and insurance distribution businesses or the inability to secure such additional relationships to produce expected results;”
- “(21) failure to successfully execute business expansion initiatives, integrate acquired businesses, or realize anticipated benefits from such efforts and significant obligations under put rights granted in completed acquisitions; and (22) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
OSG analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $-0.05 | $0.04 | -203.7% | $92.4M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $-0.11 | $0.04 | -375.0% | $88.5M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $0.17 | $0.45 | -62.2% | $362.5M | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $0.59 | $0.86 | -31.8% | $410.3M | 3 |
OSG options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±25.4% (±$1.20) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 9, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±17.8% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 108.4% | ±25.4% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 69.1% | ±27.5% |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 119 | 74.6% | ±35.0% |
| May 21, 2027 | 210 | 86.4% | ±53.0% |
30-day implied volatility 69.9% vs 43% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) —. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC)
| Price | USD 4.72 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 0.21% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 4.73 |
| Open | USD 4.77 |
| Day Range | USD 4.7 – 4.78 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 3.88 – 10.38 |
| Volume | 159,180 shares |
| Market Cap | $212.64M |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (OSG)
Nexqual's technical model rates OSG "STRONG BUY" based on 5 bullish and 0 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
| Overall Signal | STRONG BUY |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 51.34 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 4.59) |
| MACD | 0.03 (positive) |
Analyst Ratings (OSG)
Wall Street analysts rate OSG "Buy" based on 3 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 11.67 (range USD 8–15), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 3 |
| Mean Target | USD 11.67 |
| High Target | USD 15 |
| Low Target | USD 8 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 3 / 0 / 0 |
Earnings (OSG)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-09 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD -0.05 |
| Revenue Estimate | $92.40M |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD -0.04 vs est -0.01 ▼ miss |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.37 vs est 0.02 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD -0.02 vs est -0.21 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD -0.21 vs est -0.23 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (OSG)
| Total Revenue | $320.67M |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +51.00% |
| Gross Margin | +62.11% |
| Operating Margin | -8.64% |
| Profit Margin | -51.11% |
| ROE | -6.76% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.15 |
| Current Ratio | 0.98 |
| Total Cash | $109.30M |
| Total Debt | $155.46M |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
Financial Health Score (OSG)
Nexqual rates Octave Specialty Group, Inc.'s overall financial health "Solid" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
| Growth | Strong — Revenue +51% YoY (latest Q) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Solid — Gross margin 62%, operating -9% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Solid — $162M cash and investments vs $155M debt (Jun 2026, SEC), net cash |
| Cash Flow | Solid — Operating cash flow $200M (FY ended Dec 2023, 10-K) |
| Efficiency | Critical — ROE -7%, ROA -0.5% |
Ownership (OSG)
| Insider Ownership | +7.92% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +68.54% |
| Shares Outstanding | 45.05M |
| Float | 42.45M |
| Short % of Float | +3.37% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
Leadership (OSG)
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is led by Claude LeBlanc, President, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
| President, CEO & Director | Claude LeBlanc |
|---|---|
| Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer | David Trick |
| Executive VP & Group COO | Rhonta Sharon Smith |
| Managing Director & Head of Investor Relations | Philip Michael Stefano |
| Director of Corporate Communications | Kate Smith |
Major Backers & Investors (OSG)
Notable institutional backers of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. include Western Standard, LLC, Prescott Group Capital Management, L.L.C., Third Avenue Management, LLC, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Western Standard, LLC | 4.99% |
| Prescott Group Capital Management, L.L.C. | 3.66% |
| Third Avenue Management, LLC | 2.98% |
| Bain Capital Credit, LP | 2.46% |
| Jacobs Levy Equity Management, Inc. | 1.44% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 10.15% |
| Vanguard Group | 4.38% |
| Geode Capital | 2.46% |
| State Street | 1.99% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 1.59% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC.
From Octave Specialty Group, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-03-04)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- Pivix Specialty Insurance Services, Inc. ("Pivix") — Effective September 1, 2025, OSG exercised an option to convert its $3.5 million convertible note investment in Pivix, an excess and surplus lines MGA/U, into common stock.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
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| AGO | Assured Guaranty Ltd. | USD 70.31 | ▲ 1.5% |
| NMIH | NMI Holdings Inc | USD 41.49 | ▲ 1.77% |
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Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:48 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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