Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Price & Analysis
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) closed at USD 426.28 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 2.40% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 436.75; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 416.41–436.06 on volume of 2,801,178 shares. Market capitalization is $122.74B, with a 52-week range of USD 159.9–461.52 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 08:35 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/VLO.md
Latest Earnings Results (VLO)
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) reported Q3 2026 results on Oct 22, 2026, 8:20:14 AM ET: adjusted EPS $23.90 vs. estimate $21.18 (beat), revenue $46.10B vs. estimate $41.74B (beat). Source: SEC 8-K filing. Nexqual published it 31 seconds after release. Read the SEC filing.
| Fiscal period | EPS (reported) | Revenue | Released | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $23.90 (adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted) | $46.10B | Oct 22, 2026, 8:20:14 AM ET · on Nexqual +31 seconds | SEC 8-K filing |
Reported actuals captured by Nexqual from SEC 8-K filings and company press releases; each figure confirmed by two independent extraction methods.
Key facts (VLO)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $139B, net income $7.21B (5.2% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 17.0x (avg 13.6x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 10.8x, net debt $3.48B.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold VLO (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $5.7M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($5.7M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale) (20 analysts), mean target USD 418.79 (range 238–530).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +151.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +514.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-22, EPS estimate USD 20.77, revenue estimate $38.4B.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (VLO)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $114B | $176B | $145B | $130B | $123B | $139B |
| Gross profit | $3.13B | $16.8B | $12.9B | $4.80B | $5.43B | — |
| Operating income | $2.13B | $15.7B | $11.9B | $3.75B | $3.18B | $10.0B |
| Net income | $930M | $11.5B | $8.84B | $2.77B | $2.35B | $7.21B |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.27 | $29.04 | $24.92 | $8.58 | $7.57 | — |
| Free cash flow | $3.40B | $9.84B | $7.31B | $4.63B | — | — |
| Gross margin | 2.7% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 1.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 7.2% |
| Net margin | 0.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 5.2% |
| Revenue growth | +75.6% | +54.8% | -17.9% | -10.3% | -5.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $4.12B | $4.86B | $5.42B | $4.66B | $4.69B | — |
| Total debt | $13.2B | $10.3B | $10.6B | $8.83B | $9.21B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (VLO)
P/E 17.0x · P/S 0.9x · EV/EBITDA 10.8x · EV/Sales 0.9x · P/B 4.9x · Earnings yield 5.88% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.15% · Buyback yield (TTM) 3.93% · Net debt $3.48B · EV $126B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 21.4x, Dec 2024 14.3x, Dec 2023 5.2x.
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (VLO)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold VLO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bloomstran | Semper Augustus | 1.12% | $9.9M | Reduced -14.0% |
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (VLO)
0 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Fisher Eric A | SVP | 7,500 | $2.0M | 27.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-18 | Fisher Eric A | SVP | 7,500 | $1.8M | 21.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-18 | Fisher Eric A | SVP | 7,500 | $1.9M | 17.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Analysts (VLO)
Consensus Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale), 20 analysts; mean target USD 418.79 (low 238, high 530).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Hold | $375 → $400 |
| 2026-10-14 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $389 → $485 |
| 2026-10-13 | Citigroup | Target raised | Neutral | $302 → $485 |
| 2026-10-12 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | In-Line | $325 → $385 |
| 2026-10-08 | Jefferies | Target lowered | Hold | $401 → $394 |
| 2026-10-08 | Mizuho | Target raised | Neutral | $300 → $434 |
| 2026-10-06 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $323 → $441 |
| 2026-10-02 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Neutral | $395 → $414 |
| 2026-09-23 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Buy | $365 → $457 |
| 2026-09-22 | Jefferies | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | $401 |
| 2026-09-14 | Raymond James | Target raised | Strong Buy | $350 → $450 |
| 2026-09-14 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $255 → $411 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (VLO)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +151.4% | +514.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +152.2% | +43.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 36.9% | 37.1% |
| Max drawdown | -12.1% (Nov 2025→Dec 2025) | -41.2% (Apr 2024→Mar 2025) |
VLO revenue by business segment (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Refining | $42.30B | 95.1% | +49.3% |
| Renewable Diesel | $1.18B | 2.6% | +108.1% |
| Ethanol | $1.00B | 2.2% | +0.0% |
| Total revenue | $44.48B | 100% | — |
VLO revenue by product line (quarter ended Jun 30, 2026)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distillates | $20.69B | 46.5% | +61.9% |
| Gasoline & Blendstocks | $17.42B | 39.2% | +36.9% |
| Manufactured Product Other | $4.20B | 9.4% | +48.5% |
| Renewable Diesel Product | $1.06B | 2.4% | +124.9% |
| Ethanol Product | $789.0M | 1.8% | +1.2% |
| Distillers Grains | $211.0M | 0.5% | -4.1% |
| Neat SAF | $80.0M | 0.2% | +63.3% |
| Renewable Naphtha Product | $39.0M | 0.1% | -15.2% |
| Total revenue | $44.48B | 100% | — |
VLO revenue by region (fiscal year ended Dec 31, 2025)
| Line | Revenue | Share of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $87.82B | 71.6% | -5.9% |
| United Kingdom & Ireland | $15.83B | 12.9% | +3.9% |
| Canada | $8.14B | 6.6% | -5.1% |
| Other Countries | $5.73B | 4.7% | -22.0% |
| Mexico & Peru | $5.17B | 4.2% | -4.4% |
| Total revenue | $122.69B | 100% | — |
As tagged by the company in its SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings (XBRL).
VLO suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | DARLING INGREDIENTS INC. (DAR) | “1 DGD is a joint venture with Darling Ingredients Inc. (Darling) and we consolidate DGD's financial statements.” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026.
VLO analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $20.77 | $7.74 | +168.3% | $38.45B | 12 |
| Next quarter (ends Mar 2027) | $13.79 | $5.04 | +173.5% | $37.48B | 15 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $61.10 | $35.24 | +73.4% | $162.08B | 9 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $50.36 | $24.88 | +102.4% | $141.10B | 19 |
VLO options: expected move
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | 7 | 56.4% | ±6.7% |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 14 | 54.8% | ±8.9% |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 21 | 54.6% | ±10.7% |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 53.8% | ±12.2% |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 35 | 51.9% | ±13.0% |
| Dec 4, 2026 | 42 | 52.1% | ±14.2% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 51.7% | ±16.3% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 51.0% | ±19.6% |
30-day implied volatility 53.3% vs 39.8% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 1.1. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 08:35 UTC)
| Price | USD 426.28 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 2.40% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 436.75 |
| Open | USD 439.55 |
| Day Range | USD 416.41 – 436.06 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 159.9 – 461.52 |
| Volume | 2,801,178 shares |
| Market Cap | $122.74B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (VLO)
Nexqual's technical model rates VLO "STRONG BUY" based on 5 bullish and 0 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 08:35 UTC.
| Overall Signal | STRONG BUY |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 54.76 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 390.88) |
| MACD | 14.67 (positive) |
Analyst Ratings (VLO)
Wall Street analysts rate VLO "Hold" based on 20 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 418.79 (range USD 238–530), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 08:35 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Hold |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 20 |
| Mean Target | USD 418.79 |
| High Target | USD 530 |
| Low Target | USD 238 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 9 / 9 / 2 |
Earnings (VLO)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-10-22 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 20.77 |
| Revenue Estimate | $38.45B |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | USD 23.9 vs est 21.23 ▲ beat |
| 2026-06-30 | USD 12.54 vs est 10.13 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 4.22 vs est 3.16 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 3.82 vs est 3.27 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 08:35 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (VLO)
| Total Revenue | $132.43B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +51.70% |
| Gross Margin | +16.12% |
| Operating Margin | +12.27% |
| Profit Margin | +5.45% |
| ROE | +27.64% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.4 |
| Current Ratio | 1.64 |
| Total Cash | $7.87B |
| Total Debt | $11.35B |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 08:35 UTC.
Financial Health Score (VLO)
Nexqual rates Valero Energy Corporation's overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 08:35 UTC.
| Growth | Weak — Revenue -6% YoY (annual), declining |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Mixed — Gross margin 16%, operating 12% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Solid — $7.87B cash and investments vs $11.3B debt (Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Solid — Operating cash flow $5.83B (FY ended Dec 2025, 10-K) |
| Efficiency | Strong — ROE 28%, ROA 10.6% |
Ownership (VLO)
| Insider Ownership | +0.42% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +87.00% |
| Shares Outstanding | 287.93M |
| Float | 286.40M |
| Short % of Float | +3.63% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 08:35 UTC.
Leadership (VLO)
Valero Energy Corporation is led by R. Lane Riggs, CEO, President & Chairman, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 08:35 UTC.
| CEO, President & Chairman | R. Lane Riggs |
|---|---|
| Executive VP & COO | Gary K. Simmons |
| Senior VP & CFO | Harminder S. Bhullar |
| Vice President of Investor Relations | Brian Donovan |
| Executive Director of Media Relations & Communications | Lillian Riojas |
Major Backers & Investors (VLO)
Notable institutional backers of Valero Energy Corporation include FMR, LLC, Morgan Stanley, NORGES BANK, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 08:35 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| FMR, LLC | 2.95% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.79% |
| NORGES BANK | 2.22% |
| Franklin Resources, Inc. | 2.2% |
| Fidelity | 2.17% |
| Ameriprise Financial, Inc. | 1.81% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 11.9% |
| BlackRock | 8.73% |
| State Street | 6.57% |
| Geode Capital | 2.52% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 08:35 UTC.
From Valero Energy Corporation's Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-25)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- We have well-developed management structures that are central to our decision making and risk management, including three programs that support our environmental management as follows: •Our Commitment to Excellence Management System (CTEMS) is a proprietary systematic approach to planning, executing, checking, and acting to improve everyday work activities at many of our refineries and plants.
- EERA defines more than 100 expectations and involves a proprietary five-step process using due diligence on data and field assessments reviewed by a combination of external and internal subject matter experts. 3 Our investment in our low-carbon fuels businesses consists of $4.1 billion in capital investments to build our renewable diesel business (including neat SAF), and $1.9 billion to build our ethanol business.
- Through our refining business, we believe that we have developed expertise in liquid fuels manufacturing and a platform for the marketing and distribution of liquid fuels, and we seek to leverage this expertise and platform to optimize our low-carbon fuels businesses.
Partnerships
- Several of our ethanol plants are located near geology believed to be suitable for sequestering carbon dioxide, and in 2025 we entered into a stand-alone agreement with respect to our ethanol plant in Linden, Indiana to capture, transport, and store carbon dioxide that results from the ethanol manufacturing process.
- We operate DGD's renewable diesel plants and perform certain management functions for DGD as an independent contractor under an agreement with DGD.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- We could face increased climate‐related litigation with respect to our operations, disclosures, or products.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
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|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | USD 459.28 | ▼ 1.86% |
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| DINO | HF Sinclair Corporation | USD 122.32 | ▼ 2.59% |
| PBF | PBF Energy Inc. | USD 79.25 | ▼ 2.81% |
| UGP | Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne | USD 7.8 | ▼ 2.13% |
| CVI | CVR Energy Inc. | USD 58.63 | ▼ 3.46% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 08:35 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
For AI agents: this data is also available through Nexqual's free, keyless MCP server at https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp; every result includes source_url, as_of and cite_as. More: nexqual.com/agents · llms.txt