American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) Stock Price & Analysis
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) closed at USD 153.46 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, up 2.53% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 149.68; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 149.93–153.63 on volume of 339,058 shares. Market capitalization is $12.73B, with a 52-week range of USD 123.09–153.63 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/AFG.md
Key facts (AFG)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $8.28B, net income $953M (11.5% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 13.4x (avg 12.8x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 10.1x, net debt $383M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $15.6M; 6 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($15.6M); 2 by opportunistic insiders (2 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.71 on a 1–5 scale) (7 analysts), mean target USD 154.5 (range 143–170).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +21.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +60.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 3.81, revenue estimate $2.07B.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (AFG)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.55B | $7.04B | $7.83B | $8.32B | $8.17B | $8.28B |
| Operating income | $1.33B | $1.12B | $1.07B | $1.12B | $1.07B | $1.20B |
| Net income | $2.00B | $898M | $852M | $887M | $842M | $953M |
| EPS (diluted) | $23.30 | $10.53 | $10.05 | $10.57 | $10.08 | — |
| Operating margin | 20.4% | 16.0% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 14.5% |
| Net margin | 30.4% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.5% |
| Revenue growth | +13.6% | +7.4% | +11.2% | +6.3% | -1.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $2.13B | $872M | $1.23B | $1.41B | $1.73B | — |
| Total debt | $1.96B | $1.50B | $1.48B | $1.48B | $1.82B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (AFG)
P/E 13.4x · P/S 1.5x · EV/EBITDA 10.1x · EV/Sales 1.6x · P/B 2.6x · Earnings yield 7.49% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 4.53% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.69% · Net debt $383M · EV $13.1B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 13.6x, Dec 2024 13.0x, Dec 2023 11.8x.
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (AFG)
0 of 6 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Von Lehman John I | Director | 1,279 | $184K | 9.3% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-09-02 | Hertzman Brian S. | SVP, CFO | 950 | $136K | 5.3% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-24…2026-08-26 | Lindner Carl H Iii | Co-CEO | 90,000 | $13.0M | 1.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-06 | Weiss Mark A | Sr. VP & General Counsel | 2,813 | $407K | 13.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-24 | Gillis Michelle A | Senior Vice President | 2,247 | $312K | 3.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-23 | Thompson David Lawrence Jr | President of Subsidiary | 11,370 | $1.5M | 1.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Analysts (AFG)
Consensus Hold (mean 2.71 on a 1–5 scale), 7 analysts; mean target USD 154.5 (low 143, high 170).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $175 → $166 |
| 2026-10-12 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Market Perform | $153 → $147 |
| 2026-08-11 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Market Perform | $148 → $153 |
| 2026-08-10 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Neutral | $140 → $156 |
| 2026-07-09 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $158 → $173 |
| 2026-07-08 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Market Perform | $140 → $148 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (AFG)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +21.0% | +60.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +21.1% | +9.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 17.9% | 21.0% |
| Max drawdown | -10.4% (Nov 2025→Mar 2026) | -21.8% (Oct 2022→Oct 2023) |
AFG company outlook (results filed Aug 5, 2026)
- “Longer term, we continue to remain optimistic regarding the prospects of attractive returns from our alternative investment portfolio, with an expectation of annual returns averaging 10% or better.”
- “Subject to receipt of necessary third-party approvals and satisfaction of customary closing conditions, the transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026.”
- “AFG currently expects to recognize a pretax core operating gain of approximately $125 million on the sale.”
- “The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.”
Quoted word-for-word from the SEC 8-K results press release.
AFG analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $3.81 | $3.17 | +20.2% | $2.07B | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $3.45 | $3.51 | -1.6% | $1.86B | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $12.58 | $11.60 | +8.5% | $7.23B | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $12.11 | $12.06 | +0.4% | $7.66B | 7 |
AFG options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±5.5% (±$8.38) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Nov 3, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±4.1% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 23.9% | ±5.5% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 21.3% | ±6.7% |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 147 | 20.4% | ±10.4% |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 237 | 20.6% | ±13.2% |
30-day implied volatility 21.4% vs 15.5% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.04. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC)
| Price | USD 153.46 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 2.53% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 149.68 |
| Open | USD 150.65 |
| Day Range | USD 149.93 – 153.63 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 123.09 – 153.63 |
| Volume | 339,058 shares |
| Market Cap | $12.73B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (AFG)
Nexqual's technical model rates AFG "BUY" based on 5 bullish and 3 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
| Overall Signal | BUY |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 76.78 (overbought) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 142.98) |
| MACD | 2.49 (positive) |
Analyst Ratings (AFG)
Wall Street analysts rate AFG "Hold" based on 7 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 154.5 (range USD 143–170), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Hold |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 7 |
| Mean Target | USD 154.5 |
| High Target | USD 170 |
| Low Target | USD 143 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 2 / 5 / 0 |
Earnings (AFG)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-11-03 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 3.81 |
| Revenue Estimate | $2.07B |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD 2.82 vs est 2.37 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 2.47 vs est 2.56 ▼ miss |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 3.65 vs est 3.32 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 2.69 vs est 2.51 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (AFG)
| Total Revenue | $8.06B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +5.80% |
| Gross Margin | +20.16% |
| Operating Margin | +17.24% |
| Profit Margin | +11.83% |
| ROE | +20.41% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.42 |
| Current Ratio | 2.09 |
| Total Cash | $1.52B |
| Total Debt | $2.04B |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
Financial Health Score (AFG)
Nexqual rates American Financial Group, Inc.'s overall financial health "Solid" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
| Growth | Mixed — Revenue +0.1% YoY (annual), slow |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Mixed — Gross margin 20%, operating 17% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Strong — $1.44B cash and investments vs $1.82B debt (Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Solid — Operating cash flow $1.53B (FY ended Dec 2025, 10-K) |
| Efficiency | Strong — ROE 20%, ROA 2.6% |
Ownership (AFG)
| Insider Ownership | +20.26% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +68.78% |
| Shares Outstanding | 82.92M |
| Float | 66.57M |
| Short % of Float | +2.54% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
Leadership (AFG)
American Financial Group, Inc. is led by Stephen Craig Lindner, Co-CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
| Co-CEO & Director | Stephen Craig Lindner |
|---|---|
| Co-CEO & Director | Carl Henry Lindner |
| President & Director | John Bernard Berding |
| Senior VP & CFO | Brian Scott Hertzman |
| President & COO of Property and Casualty Insurance Group and Director | David Lawrence Thompson |
Major Backers & Investors (AFG)
Notable institutional backers of American Financial Group, Inc. include FMR, LLC, Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc., American Financial Group Inc 401(k) Retirement & Savings Plan, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| FMR, LLC | 6.59% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. | 2.79% |
| American Financial Group Inc 401(k) Retirement & Savings Plan | 2.71% |
| Charles Schwab | 2% |
| Victory Capital Management Inc. | 1.95% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| BlackRock | 9.3% |
| Vanguard Group | 7.97% |
| State Street | 3.71% |
| Geode Capital | 2.09% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | 1.94% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC.
From American Financial Group, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-25)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- As of December 31, 2025, the Company had approximately 8,500 employees (none of which were covered by collective bargaining agreements), including approximately 7,700 employed at Great American Insurance Group.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- The Company may be subject to increasing regulation imposing mandatory disclosure of sustainability and climate-related data in the United States and foreign jurisdictions.
- Changes in domestic or foreign tax laws or interpretations of such laws could increase AFG's corporate taxes and reduce earnings.
- New accounting rules or changes to existing accounting standards could adversely impact AFG's reported results of operations.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNA | CNA Financial Corporation | USD 49.39 | ▲ 2.21% |
| AIZ | Assurant, Inc. | USD 288.85 | ▲ 1.6% |
| ORI | Old Republic International Corp | USD 40.08 | ▼ 0.12% |
| KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | USD 390.64 | ▲ 3.7% |
| THG | Hanover Insurance Group Inc | USD 239.59 | ▲ 3.3% |
| L | Loews Corporation | USD 113.68 | ▲ 1.75% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:49 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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