The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Stock Price & Analysis
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) closed at USD 229.62 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, up 3.74% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 221.35; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 222.46–229.81 on volume of 2,345,727 shares. Market capitalization is $133.27B, with a 52-week range of USD 189.2–239.38 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 09:17 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/PGR.md
Key facts (PGR)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $91.1B, net income $11.7B (12.8% margin), free cash flow $16.0B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 11.4x (avg 17.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), net debt $6.22B.
- 7 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold PGR (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 3 added, 0 reduced, 3 unchanged.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.56 on a 1–5 scale) (25 analysts), mean target USD 230.57 (range 196–266).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +10.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +168.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-14, EPS estimate USD 4.12, revenue estimate $20.1B.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (PGR)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $47.7B | $49.6B | $62.1B | $75.4B | $87.7B | $91.1B |
| Net income | $3.35B | $722M | $3.90B | $8.48B | $11.3B | $11.7B |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.66 | $1.18 | $6.58 | $14.40 | $19.23 | — |
| Free cash flow | $7.52B | $6.56B | $10.4B | $14.8B | $17.2B | $16.0B |
| Net margin | 7.0% | 1.5% | 6.3% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 12.8% |
| Revenue growth | +11.8% | +4.0% | +25.2% | +21.4% | +16.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.14B | $3.08B | $1.89B | $769M | $10.1B | — |
| Total debt | $4.90B | $6.39B | $6.89B | $6.89B | $6.90B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (PGR)
P/E 11.4x · P/S 1.5x · EV/Sales 1.5x · P/FCF 8.4x · P/B 3.9x · FCF yield 11.97% · Earnings yield 8.78% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 6.11% · Net debt $6.22B · EV $139B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 11.8x, Dec 2024 16.6x, Dec 2023 24.0x.
Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026) (PGR)
7 of 80 tracked investors hold PGR. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Rolfe | Wedgewood Partners | 4.79% | $23.2M | Added +27.5% |
| Francois Rochon | Giverny Capital | 3.98% | $118M | Added +2.6% |
| Thomas Gayner | Markel Group | 1.25% | $165M | Unchanged |
| Bruce Berkowitz | Fairholme Capital | 1.06% | $15.8M | Added +8.7% |
| Tweedy Browne | 0.23% | $3.0M | Unchanged | |
| John Rogers | Ariel Investments | 0.13% | $12.9M | New position |
| Glenn Greenberg | Brave Warrior Advisors | 0.01% | $391K | Unchanged |
Analysts (PGR)
Consensus Hold (mean 2.56 on a 1–5 scale), 25 analysts; mean target USD 230.57 (low 196, high 266).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Underweight | $201 → $196 |
| 2026-10-15 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Outperform | $252 → $246 |
| 2026-10-07 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $246 → $247 |
| 2026-10-05 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $241 → $250 |
| 2026-09-18 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Reiterated | Outperform | $250 |
| 2026-09-16 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Neutral | $236 → $230 |
| 2026-08-27 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $225 → $234 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Underweight | $198 → $201 |
| 2026-08-20 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Upgrade | Market Perform → Outperform | $226 → $250 |
| 2026-08-17 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target lowered | Neutral | $220 → $200 |
| 2026-08-04 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $250 → $241 |
| 2026-07-24 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Underweight → Equal-Weight | $190 → $210 |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (PGR)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +10.9% | +168.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +10.9% | +21.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 26.7% | 24.0% |
| Max drawdown | -14.3% (Dec 2025→May 2026) | -29.1% (May 2025→May 2026) |
PGR analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $4.12 | $4.12 | -0.2% | $20.13B | 20 |
| Next quarter (ends Mar 2027) | $4.44 | $4.42 | +0.4% | $24.71B | 19 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $18.48 | $17.61 | +5.0% | $87.08B | 23 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $16.30 | $16.23 | +0.4% | $91.72B | 23 |
PGR options: expected move
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | 7 | 24.5% | ±2.9% |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 14 | 25.3% | ±4.1% |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 21 | 26.2% | ±5.2% |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 26.0% | ±5.9% |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 35 | 25.0% | ±6.3% |
| Dec 4, 2026 | 42 | 25.0% | ±6.8% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 24.9% | ±7.9% |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 84 | 21.0% | ±10.7% |
30-day implied volatility 25.5% vs 26.2% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 0.43. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 09:17 UTC)
| Price | USD 229.62 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▲ 3.74% (up) |
| Previous Close | USD 221.35 |
| Open | USD 223.32 |
| Day Range | USD 222.46 – 229.81 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 189.2 – 239.38 |
| Volume | 2,345,727 shares |
| Market Cap | $133.27B |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (PGR)
Nexqual's technical model rates PGR "BUY" based on 5 bullish and 2 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:17 UTC.
| Overall Signal | BUY |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 65.25 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Above (USD 215.63) |
| MACD | 2.59 (positive) |
Analyst Ratings (PGR)
Wall Street analysts rate PGR "Hold" based on 25 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 230.57 (range USD 196–266), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:17 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Hold |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 25 |
| Mean Target | USD 230.57 |
| High Target | USD 266 |
| Low Target | USD 196 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 8 / 16 / 1 |
Earnings (PGR)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-10-14 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 4.12 |
| Revenue Estimate | $20.13B |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | USD 4.6 vs est 4.41 ▲ beat |
| 2026-06-30 | USD 4.85 vs est 4.84 ▲ beat |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 4.96 vs est 4.88 ▲ beat |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 4.67 vs est 4.43 ▲ beat |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:17 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (PGR)
| Total Revenue | $91.70B |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +3.00% |
| Gross Margin | +17.28% |
| Operating Margin | +14.33% |
| Profit Margin | +12.67% |
| ROE | +33.24% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.24 |
| Current Ratio | 0.28 |
| Total Cash | $2.12B |
| Total Debt | $8.39B |
| Free Cash Flow (last four quarters to Jun 2026, SEC 10-Q / 10-K) | $15.95B (17.5% of revenue) |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:17 UTC.
Financial Health Score (PGR)
Nexqual rates The Progressive Corporation's overall financial health "Solid" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 09:17 UTC.
| Growth | Solid — Revenue +12% YoY (annual) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Mixed — Gross margin 17%, operating 14% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Solid — $2.17B cash and investments vs $8.39B debt (Jun 2026, SEC) |
| Cash Flow | Strong — FCF $16.0B (last 4 quarters to Jun 2026, SEC), 18% margin |
| Efficiency | Strong — ROE 33%, ROA 7.5% |
Ownership (PGR)
| Insider Ownership | +0.24% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +90.14% |
| Shares Outstanding | 580.40M |
| Float | 577.24M |
| Short % of Float | +1.18% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:17 UTC.
Leadership (PGR)
The Progressive Corporation is led by Susan Patricia Griffith, President, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:17 UTC.
| President, CEO & Director | Susan Patricia Griffith |
|---|---|
| President of Personal Lines | Patrick K. Callahan |
| President of Claims | John Joseph Murphy |
| President of Commercial Lines | Karen Barone Bailo |
| VP & CFO | Andrew John Quigg |
Major Backers & Investors (PGR)
Notable institutional backers of The Progressive Corporation include Capital Group, Fidelity, Bank of America Corporation, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 09:17 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Capital Group | 6.72% |
| Fidelity | 2.27% |
| Bank of America Corporation | 2.11% |
| FMR, LLC | 1.93% |
| JPMorgan | 1.77% |
| Investment Co of America | 1.22% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 8.57% |
| BlackRock | 8.26% |
| State Street | 4.56% |
| Geode Capital | 2.93% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 09:17 UTC.
From The Progressive Corporation's Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-03-02)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- Although industry figures are not available, based on our analysis of this market, we believe that we are the market share leader for both the motorcycle and boat products and that we are one of the largest providers of RV insurance.
Partnerships
- In recent years, legislation, regulatory measures, and voter initiatives have been introduced, and in some cases adopted, which deal with use of consumer information, cybersecurity, use of credit and other information in underwriting and rating, insurance rate development, use of artificial intelligence and algorithms, rate of return limitations, and the ability of insurers to cancel or non-renew insurance policies.
- The agency personal vehicle business also writes insurance through strategic alliance business relationships with other insurance companies, financial institutions, and national agencies.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- New regulations and societal pressures relating to Sustainability and other public policy matters could negatively impact our returns or cause us to change our investing strategies in ways that could negatively impact our results.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CB | Chubb Limited | USD 363.95 | ▲ 2.54% |
| TRV | The Travelers Companies, Inc. | USD 405.44 | ▲ 1.63% |
| ALL | Allstate Corporation (The) | USD 259.1 | ▲ 3.21% |
| WRB | W.R. Berkley Corporation | USD 75.55 | ▲ 1.63% |
| CINF | Cincinnati Financial Corporatio | USD 178.28 | ▲ 2.68% |
| MKL | Markel Group Inc. | USD 1,905.39 | ▲ 1.79% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 09:17 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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