Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) Stock Price & Analysis
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) closed at USD 6.3 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down 0.63% on the day. The US market is currently closed (pre-market); this is not a live price.
The prior close was USD 6.34; the Oct 22, 2026 session ranged USD 6.3–6.43 on volume of 5,341,273 shares. Market capitalization is $809.83M, with a 52-week range of USD 6.11–11.24 (NYQ). Source: Nexqual, retrieved October 23, 2026 at 11:43 UTC.
Also available as compact Markdown for AI agents: nexqual.com/ARI.md
Key facts (ARI)
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $238M, net income $132M (55.5% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 6.1x (avg 19.6x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $57K; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($57K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale) (4 analysts), mean target USD 8 (range 7.75–8.25).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +0.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +7.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-29, EPS estimate USD 0.05, revenue estimate $0K.
Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters) (ARI)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $285M | $304M | $345M | $304M | $272M | $238M |
| Net income | $224M | $265M | $58.1M | -$120M | $127M | $132M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.46 | $1.68 | $0.29 | -$0.97 | $0.81 | — |
| Net margin | 78.6% | 87.4% | 16.9% | -39.4% | 46.7% | 55.5% |
| Revenue growth | +2.1% | +6.7% | +13.5% | -11.9% | -10.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $343M | $222M | $225M | $317M | $140M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.
Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026) (ARI)
P/E 6.1x · P/S 3.4x · P/B 0.7x · Earnings yield 16.30% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 17.40% · Buyback yield (TTM) 15.25%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 10.6x, Dec 2023 28.5x.
Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months) (ARI)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Salvati Michael | Director | 960 | $7K | 0.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-13 | Whonder Carmencita N.M. | Director | 4,574 | $50K | 15.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.
Analysts (ARI)
Consensus Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale), 4 analysts; mean target USD 8 (low 7.75, high 8.25).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | BTIG | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral |
Total return (dividends reinvested) (ARI)
| 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +0.3% | +7.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +0.3% | +1.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 19.2% | 31.7% |
| Max drawdown | -14.2% (Apr 2026→Sep 2026) | -40.1% (Nov 2021→Sep 2022) |
ARI suppliers, customers and competitors (named in its 10-K)
| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Athene Holding Ltd. (ATH-PA) | “On January 27, 2026, we entered into the Purchase Agreement with Athene.” |
| Partner | Operating | “In connection with the Asset Sale, we also entered into the Management Agreement Side Letter with Operating LLC and the Manager, and the Expense Reimbursement Letter Agreement with Apollo Management Holdings.” |
| Partner | Apollo Management Holdings | “In connection with the Asset Sale, we also entered into the Management Agreement Side Letter with Operating LLC and the Manager, and the Expense Reimbursement Letter Agreement with Apollo Management Holdings.” |
| Partner | Turner Consulting II | “In September 2018, we entered a joint venture with Turner Consulting II, LLC ("Turner Consulting"), through an entity which owns the underlying property that secures our loan.” |
| Partner | Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) | “AGM's CISO, in coordination with the Apollo Technology and ERM teams, works collaboratively across Apollo to implement a program designed to protect its information systems from cybersecurity threats and to promptly respond to any cybersecurity incidents in accordance with its incident response and recovery plans.” |
| Partner | WG Bowtie | “In the third quarter of 2022, we contributed an assemblage of properties in downtown Brooklyn, NY to a joint venture with WG Bowtie, LLC, a real estate developer.” |
Quoted from the company's 10-K filed Feb 10, 2026.
ARI analyst estimates and revisions
| Period | EPS estimate | 90 days ago | Change | Revenue estimate | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends Sep 2026) | $0.05 | $0.06 | -11.1% | $0 | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends Dec 2026) | $0.05 | $0.08 | -34.4% | $0 | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends Dec 2026) | $-2.76 | $-0.45 | +515.5% | $42.0M | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends Dec 2027) | $0.23 | $0.56 | -59.7% | $0 | 3 |
ARI options: expected move
Options price a move of about ±30.2% (±$1.91) by Nov 20, 2026, which includes earnings on Oct 29, 2026. Over the last 8 reports the stock moved ±3.1% on average.
| Expiration | Days | ATM implied volatility | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 28 | 85.5% | ±30.2% |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 56 | 61.6% | ±32.5% |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 119 | 43.4% | ±28.2% |
30-day implied volatility 37.2% vs 15% realized over the last 30 trading days. Put/call ratio (volume) 1. Cboe delayed quotes (15 min). Expected move = at-the-money straddle.
Key Statistics (as of October 23, 2026 at 11:43 UTC)
| Price | USD 6.3 |
|---|---|
| Change | ▼ 0.63% (down) |
| Previous Close | USD 6.34 |
| Open | USD 6.33 |
| Day Range | USD 6.3 – 6.43 |
| 52-Week Range | USD 6.11 – 11.24 |
| Volume | 5,341,273 shares |
| Market Cap | $809.83M |
| Exchange | NYQ |
Technical Analysis (ARI)
Nexqual's technical model rates ARI "SELL" based on 1 bullish and 4 bearish signals across 127 daily candles, as of October 23, 2026 at 11:43 UTC.
| Overall Signal | SELL |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 39.75 (neutral) |
| vs SMA50 | Below (USD 6.54) |
| MACD | -0.06 (negative) |
Analyst Ratings (ARI)
Wall Street analysts rate ARI "Buy" based on 4 analysts, with a mean price target of USD 8 (range USD 7.75–8.25), per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 11:43 UTC.
| Consensus Rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| Analyst Count | 4 |
| Mean Target | USD 8 |
| High Target | USD 8.25 |
| Low Target | USD 7.75 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 3 / 1 / 0 |
Earnings (ARI)
| Next Earnings Date | 2026-10-29 |
|---|---|
| EPS Estimate | USD 0.05 |
| Revenue Estimate | $0 |
Recent Earnings History
| Quarter | Actual vs Estimate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | USD -2.62 vs est -0.58 ▼ miss |
| 2026-03-31 | USD 0.22 vs est 0.29 ▼ miss |
| 2025-12-31 | USD 0.32 vs est 0.24 ▲ beat |
| 2025-09-30 | USD 0.23 vs est 0.25 ▼ miss |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:43 UTC.
Financials & Fundamentals (ARI)
| Total Revenue | $624.29M |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (latest quarter, YoY) | +524.90% |
| Gross Margin | +86.44% |
| Operating Margin | +91.25% |
| Profit Margin | +21.14% |
| ROE | +8.51% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.3 |
| Current Ratio | 2.43 |
| Total Cash | $1.24B |
| Total Debt | $371.43M |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:43 UTC.
Financial Health Score (ARI)
Nexqual rates Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s overall financial health "Mixed" across five dimensions, as of October 23, 2026 at 11:43 UTC.
| Growth | Critical — Revenue -16% YoY (annual), sharp decline |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Strong — Gross margin 86% (last 12 months) |
| Balance Sheet | Strong — $1.24B cash vs $371M debt, net cash position |
| Cash Flow | Solid — Operating cash flow $143M (FY ended Dec 2025, 10-K) |
| Efficiency | Mixed — ROE 9%, ROA 2.2% |
Ownership (ARI)
| Insider Ownership | +0.57% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | +82.93% |
| Shares Outstanding | 128.54M |
| Float | 102.04M |
| Short % of Float | +4.90% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:43 UTC.
Leadership (ARI)
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is led by Stuart A. Rothstein, President, CEO & Director, per Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 11:43 UTC.
| President, CEO & Director | Stuart A. Rothstein |
|---|
Major Backers & Investors (ARI)
Notable institutional backers of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. include Millennium Management, Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings Ltd., No Street GP LP, according to Nexqual as of October 23, 2026 at 11:43 UTC.
Active Investors
| Investor | Stake |
|---|---|
| Millennium Management | 3.55% |
| Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings Ltd. | 2.2% |
| No Street GP LP | 1.9% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. | 1.58% |
| GLOBAL X FUNDS-Global X SuperDividend ETF | 1.57% |
| Schonfeld Strategic Advisors Llc | 1.49% |
Index Funds (Passive)
| Fund | Stake |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 9.43% |
| BlackRock | 9.28% |
| Geode Capital | 2.63% |
| State Street | 2.59% |
Source: Nexqual, October 23, 2026 at 11:43 UTC.
From Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s Latest SEC 10-K Filing (filed 2026-02-10)
Key Strengths & Strategy (as disclosed to the SEC)
- We also operate our business in a manner intended to allow us to remain excluded from registration as an investment company under the 1940 Act.
- We expect these instruments will allow us to minimize, but not eliminate, the risk that we may have to refinance our liabilities before the maturities of our assets and to reduce the impact of changing interest rates on our earnings.
Partnerships
- In general, we pursue a value-driven approach to underwriting and diligence, consistent with the historical investment strategy of the Manager and its affiliates.
Legal & Regulatory Risks (Item 1A, quoted)
- We cannot predict the unintended consequences and market distortions that may stem from far-ranging governmental intervention in the economic and financial system or from regulatory reform of the oversight of financial markets.
- The Manager may be unable to operate us within the parameters that allow the Manager to be exempt from regulation as a commodity pool operator, which would subject us to additional regulation and compliance requirements, and could materially adversely affect our business and financial condition.
- Climate change-related risks and regulatory and other efforts to address potential climate change impacts could adversely affect our business.
- Future litigation or administrative proceedings could have a material and adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K, official filing. Curated by Nexqual.
Peers & Related Stocks
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORC | Orchid Island Capital, Inc. | USD 4.9 | ▲ 0.62% |
| CIM | Chimera Investment Corporation | USD 8.45 | ▲ 2.55% |
| ADAM | Adamas Trust, Inc. | USD 7.73 | ▲ 3.9% |
| MFA | MFA Financial, Inc. | USD 6.62 | ▲ 2.32% |
| IVR | INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC | USD 5.52 | ▲ 1.85% |
| ABR | Arbor Realty Trust | USD 2.96 | ▲ 2.07% |
Data source: Nexqual — market data, technical indicators, analyst consensus, earnings, SEC EDGAR filings. Last updated: October 23, 2026 at 11:43 UTC. This page is informational and not investment advice.
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